Phase 1B Modeling

     The World Bank is undertaking the Central Asia Energy Water Development Program (CAEWDP) to build regional energy and water security through enhanced regional cooperation. Energy and water linkages are inextricable from regional stability and growth. CAEWDP, a long-term program proposes to (i) build diagnostics and analytical tools to better understand options and trade-offs for energy-water integration; (ii) strengthen regional institutions and platforms for dialogue; and (iii) invest in regionally significant energy and water infrastructure. CAEWDP is structured on four main components (i) energy generation, (ii) energy trade, (iii) energy-water linkages, and (iv) water productivity. By strengthening regional institutions, establishing sound energy-water diagnostics and analytical tools, and eventually identifying high priority infrastructure investments, the CAEWPD’s long term goals are to eliminate winter energy shortages, increase electricity trade both within and outside the region, enhance water productivity with accompanying benefits for energy and agricultural incomes and contribute to regional security through informed dialogue on energy-water management across the region. CAEWDP will provide the initial steps in a long-term program to build regional energy and water security through promoting a transparent approach for regional decision-making will build regional confidence for regional resource management, supporting national interests.

     The objective of the Phase 1B component of CAEWDP was to develop a first-generation model, from publically available time series data and model platforms, that would visualize and simulate water and energy linkages in Amu Darya and Syr Darya river systems, with a purpose to:

  • Develop better understanding of the energy and water resources linkages
  • Provoke a dialogue and discussion with regional and national technical stakeholders.

     Central to this model development was to illustrate, from a neutral and transparent platform, the path towards possible resolutions and scenarios to the issues of the region. In the context of information neutrality, the only data “allowed” was the use of publically available information. As such, this effort intends to:

  • Serve as a catalyst for open and transparent discussion on water and energy linkages
  • Not to substitute or replace the efforts undertaken in the region, but serve as a public and transparent platform for discussions

     The basic premise is to develop the data layers needed to model (to describe the dynamics of) the movement of water through the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river systems, meeting the following 4 principles:

  • The data to develop the model is fully transparent, and is derived initially from globally available data sets
  • The full mass-balance of water is accounted for across the entire basin, as the basis of the hydrologic cycle,
  • Energy and water linkages, including hydropower, irrigation, and other land use practices are then superimposed on the basic hydrological cycle.this model development
  • The model is scalable (in space and time), and able to illustrate these water and energy linkages.